Defeat the Coronavirus? A song could be enough.

The Mad Card Game

The reason is that science depends on one fundamental thing: knowledge. Without knowledge, there is no science. Let's think about Coronavirus: how comes we don't know how to predict the situation? Are there no mathematical models of virus spreading that we can use? With all the science at our disposal, can't we know what will happen?

For example, we could build a model that will help us understand and predict the future. It's what you do in many fields after all. A model is like a strategy for winning a game. Think of a card game: how do we play the right card to try to win? Well, let's think, we have our own strategy. Which is based on knowledge: the cards we saw coming out, and of course the rules of the game. What would happen if the game instead had cards that can be added or removed without our knowledge, some known rules but other rules instead unknown? And maybe this great soup of known and unknown rules also changed continuously as we play? The answer would be spontaneous: what kind of game is it? In this crazy game it is obvious that we would no longer be able to have a winning strategy, we would be at the mercy of events, trying desperately to understand what is going on. It's the same thing that's happening now.

At this moment knowledge is lacking, and for this reason science is struggling to understand something. We have a lot of studies and models that we can use to try to predict the future of Coronavirus, but we lack the rules of the game, and the precise data on what is going on. There are too many variables at play, and the known mathematical models simply don't have enough information. For this reason, the results are so variable, because the models used on incomplete or incorrect data can give correct but also wrong results. Anyone with a little familiarity can build a mathematical model, perfectly plausible and that uses the most sophisticated theories, to give a certain prediction or a completely different prediction. There is no science without knowledge.

Zap!

In summary, we lack the data and rules of the game. What we see from above, the general situation of Coronavirus, is the product of billions of micro variables, which depend on that super-complex system that is our society. Mr. Smith passes to the side to Mrs. Johnson, and zap, the virus has passed. Does Mr. Williams take the supermarket cart and then touch his nose? Zap, the virus has passed. Billions and billions of micro-events, of situations, of possibilities over which we have no control, we have no power, which we are unable to grasp or simulate decently. Reality goes beyond imagination, it is said. Well, reality also surpasses science and technology, for now at least. All these micro-behaviors inserted in the great Chaotic System of our lives create the impossible game, the one that we are unable to grasp and understand, and that for now keeps us going on trying to save what we can.

The Cancer of the World

However, we have some simple data, and therefore we can start from very simple reasoning. For example, a graph like the one showing the trend of deaths from the virus in Italy:

Even if we have no idea what is going on and the billions of variables at stake, note that this curve has a well-defined shape, as if someone was drawing it carefully. And unfortunately, as you can see immediately, it grows a lot. The first thing to do is to try to see how much it grows, as numbers can grow in various ways. One of the biggest growths is the so-called “exponential” growth, that is, an insanely large growth, practically a kind of race to double: 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64 and so on. This growth is the dream of those who for example create a company, a website, a mobile phone app, because it signals that magical phase in which everything is booming. When we talk about messages that become viral on social networks we are talking about similar growth curves, which ride the glorious wave of exponential growth: messages that quickly conquer the world.

Conversely, exponential growth is the worst that can happen for example in the medical field. The dreaded cancer, which we have not yet been able to defeat, takes advantage of this crazy growth wave to scoff at the cures: if not contained in time, the growth of diseased cells is so great that it becomes practically unstoppable, eating our body.

Going back to Coronavirus then, what kind of growth is it following? It will not be like that of cancer, that is an exponential growth? To check, let's move on to another type of vision, using the opposite of exponential growth: the logarithm. Does exponential growth double? The logarithm, bitter rival, halves. By taking our data and passing it to a logarithmic filter, we can see if the curve that is growing so much bends. Here then is the curve of the dead in Italy, seen with the new pair of logarithmic glasses:

What do we see? We see that what was once a curve has become a straight line, which continues to rise. What does it mean? It means that the logarithm has not been able to bend the growth of the virus, and therefore the speed with which the virus kills people unfortunately grows like cancer, a crazy wave that overwhelms everything, and which risks taking away with it the whole population.

All is lost, save who can?

That said, obviously not all is lost, because science can still help us in various other ways, trying to lessen the mad rush of the virus before it eats us all, until a cure is found. The fact that the virus has spread from the other side of the world (China) to us and beyond is due to the fact that we live in a small world, which has long been studied in the context of Complex Systems. And this science, together with the others, allows us to understand a little what's going on, and above all to try to limit the damage. For example, one of the main problems are the so-called “long jumps”, such as a trip away from home. Very few of these hops beyond our area are enough to give the virus that deadly power typical of cancer, that crazy exponential wave that consumes everything. This is why, for example, the mass exodus from Lombardy in Italy to the announcement of the region closure was a devastating help given to the virus. Another problem is for example the so-called “hubs”, the gathering places: the bar, the bus stop, the sporting event, all the social aggregators are launching ramps for the virus, which is reinvigorated and re-empowered.

“Stay home”? Wrong!

So here is the solution that simplifies everything: we stay at home. Is it enough to say stay home? Wrong! The media campaign about staying at home is fine, but up to a point, because it doesn't consider the other side of the coin, just like incomplete mathematical models. Perhaps someone, with the help of others, will always be able to stay at home, but the reality is different. Many will go out the same simply for a walk, because after all we human beings were not born to stay within four walls, our real life is out there, not plugged in the house. But just repeat it louder and louder, right? Stay home! Wrong, because many are simply forced to go out: for work, to do the shopping, to throw the garbage and so on. Saying just “stay at home” is simply wrong in our current way of life. So?

So the important thing is to focus attention on the other side, the really dangerous one: going out. For instance, going outside when we are forced to. And that's when the going gets tough, and asks for all our attention, like the instructions we constantly hear from the media, including the famous minimum distance, and being careful to touch objects and wash your hands. These are the real things that we must pay tremendous attention on when we are out. Because beyond staying at home, you have to go out there sooner or later. But then, if this is enough, why does the virus continue its mad rush?

#StayOutWell

Where's the real problem? To make everyone understand the fondamental importance of “staying out well”, fighting against one of the fundamental problems that lie inside our heads, the cause and effect relationship. Do we cross the road with a red light? Certainly not, because we know that in a few seconds we could be dead. But when the relationship between cause and effect lengthens over time, here are the problems. Problems inherent in the algorithms of our beautiful and strange supercomputer, that brain that lies inside our heads. That brain is not used to making difficult associations, preferring simplicity and immediate results. So, what will it be if I walk less than a yard away from someone? After all, I went home and I'm fine. What will happen if I touch something out there and then I don't wash my hands? Come on, what can happen, and even if, it certainly does not happen to me, I did it yesterday and the day before yesterday and I'm still here. Meanwhile, the virus plays with us, unfortunately with a well thought out strategy, even mathematically speaking.

The Stupid and the Shrewd Virus

How dangerous is a virus? Well, it depends on how many die when they get it right? Wrong. The Ebola virus, much more deadly than the Coronavirus, has been called a “stupid” virus, precisely because it was super-dangerous, and caused the infected to die quickly. But precisely this rapid death meant that the virus often failed to spread, remaining confined in the body of the infected. And so goodbye exponential propagation. Coronavirus, on the other hand, is smarter, precisely because it is blander. We read that Coronavirus is not so deadly, and therefore there is no need to be so afraid. Wrong. Precisely because Coronavirus is mild, it lengthens the cause-and-effect relationship, and this allows it, for example, to spread much more easily from one person to another. Where? Right out there, when Mr. Smith passes half a yard away from Mrs. Johnson. Zap! Both will be doing very well today, and also tomorrow, and perhaps even for the whole week and beyond. Here is the real problem that must be understood: that Coronavirus is smarter than us, it is a mutation that exploits our weakness, temporal dilation, to ride the wave of exponential growth, and become the world's cancer.

The Slow-Motion Red Light

How do we get out? Realizing that what matters is not so much the “stay at home” (an obviously right thing to do when possible), but also and above all the other necessary part, the “stay out well.” Struggling against the effect of temporal dilation, which so far makes this virus so clever and diabolical towards us. By convincing everyone quickly that that is the fundamental part: not respecting the safety rules is like crossing with the red light, only at super-slowed speed, a fraction of inch per second. And the crash is very likely in the end, even if maybe a week later. But understanding this is not enough, we need to make that little extra effort: do it all, because unfortunately, and in this the mathematical models are precise, few people are enough to restore energy to the virus, and make it recover that deadly force.

The Song

If we all lived in peace, there would be no wars, simple right? In his beautiful song Imagine, John Lennon said exactly this: “Imagine all the people, Living life in peace.” Humanity has not yet succeeded, for that Lennon sang “You may say I'm a dreamer, But I'm not the only one, I hope someday you'll join us, And the world will be as one.” Maybe we have not yet managed to defeat wars and the other big problems of the world, but we can do a first step now. There is a cancer in action, a lethal cancer of humanity and very clever too. And we could easily get out of it if only we all lived not all our lives, but only the next three weeks in a certain way. What do you say, am I a dreamer? Maybe, but I'm not the only one, and I hope today you'll join us.